What’s Next for the Welterweight Division
John Morris
December 8th, 2025
The month of November was a pivotal month for the UFC’s welterweight division. After brief title reigns by former champions Belal Muhammad and Jack Della Maddalena, the 170 pound division found its new king at UFC 322, when Islam Makhachev claimed the title by unanimous decision over Jack Della Maddalena. But the title fight was not the only fight that made noise in the division. Also on the main card of UFC 322 were two fights at the welterweight division, followed by a co-main event the following weekend at UFC Qatar:
Michael Morales def. Sean Brady via Round 1 TKO
Carlos Prates def. Leon Edwards via Round 1 KO
Ian Machado Garry def. Belal Muhammad via UD
Not only did these results compress the division over just a two week span, they also completely shifted the welterweight rankings. Before their losses, Brady, Edwards, and Muhhamad were all ranked inside the top 5 contenders for the welterweight division. Currently, only Muhhamad (5) remains in the top 5 for the division. And with questions floating around regarding who gets a shot at the title next, here are some matchups that could help answer those questions:
Jack Della Maddalena (1) vs. Shavkat Rakhmonov (3)
Even in defeat at UFC 322, Jack Della Maddalena proved he belongs at the championship level. His boxing remains the most notable in the division, with sharp counters, tight footwork, and elite shot selection. However, the gap between world class grappling and high level boxing was revealed during the Makhachev fight, with Makhachev’s grappling being too much for Della Maddalena to handle. However, in a post fight interview, Makhachev credits Della Maddelena’s striking ability, and expresses his faith in Della Maddelena’s ability to return.
“Jack [Della Maddelena], still young … he’s gonna improve his wrestling, and he has one of the best striking [abilities] … he’s gonna be one of the best in this game” (Makhachev, in a post fight interview at UFC 322).
After a one sided loss against Makhacev, a bounce back fight against a credible opponent is exactly what Della Maddelena needs to remind everyone of his legitimacy, and further strengthen his argument for a shot at the title.
That is exactly why Shavkat Rakhmonov is the most logical next opponent.
Rakhmonov is still undefeated, still unbroken, and still finishing everyone put in front of him. His identity consists of composed pressure. His IQ and ability to close space combined with his grappling and striking ability is what made the difference in all of his fights so far in the UFC. From a business perspective, this is the cleanest title eliminator the UFC can make. A win for Della Maddalena erases any lingering doubts about his ground game. A win for Rakhmonov solidifies him as the division’s unavoidable next challenger.
Ian Machado Garry (2) vs. Michael Morales (4)
Ian Machado Garry’s unanimous decision over Belal Muhammad quietly became the most important win of his career. Over five rounds, Garry showed discipline, patience, and tactical growth that had been missing from some of his earlier performances.
Michael Morales represents the opposite end of the spectrum.
His first round TKO of Sean Brady was a statement victory that many doubted could happen. His powerful and direct punching, forward pressure, and a clear willingness to exchange on the stand-up make him one of the most dangerous young finishers in the division.
The matchup between Garry and Morales is ideal matchmaking. Garry’s range control, footwork, and timing against Morales’ pressure and power would immediately answer whether either fighter is ready to challenge an elite champion such as Makhachev.
Carlos Prates (6) vs. Sean Brady (7)
Carlos Prates’ knockout of Leon Edwards was not just an upset, it was a statement. One clean connection was all it took for Prates to announce himself as a real threat in the welterweight title picture. His striking is calm, patient, and devastatingly efficient.
After suffering a first round TKO loss to Michael Morales, Brady’s path forward shifts from title momentum to survival among the division’s rising fighters. Still, his elite wrestling base, top control, and submission threat remain among the most reliable skill sets in the division.
From a matchmaking standpoint, Prates vs. Brady is a perfect stylistic pressure test. Brady represents the exact type of fighter Prates must solve to move from “dangerous striker” to legitimate contender.
From a business angle, the stakes are just as high. A Prates win would move him directly the top five (currently #6), whereas a Brady win would re-establish him as a legitimate contender.
Pav’s Lock of the Week: Back to Back
George Pavlus
December 5, 2024
Current Record: (9-3)
Note: Last week (Thanksgiving) was not an article pick, but Fresno State clutched up and covered. Just trust me on this one.
Welcome back to the thirteenth edition of Pav’s Lock of the Week! We have a lot to discuss in today’s issue, but I will attempt to keep it short and sweet (the lead-up to finals week is no joke!) Our last two picks got us back into the win column with Illinois pulling off an improbable last-second victory against Rutgers two weeks ago and Fresno State kicking a late field goal to narrowly cover the 7.5 number against in-state foe UCLA. Despite having to sweat both wagers to the final whistle, we couldn’t be hotter with a total record of 9-3.
Last weekend proved why rivalry week is the best slate in football. Yes, I put it above Champ Weekend! When two teams who hate each other hit the field record books get thrown out the window and anything can happen. Look no further than what went down in Columbus as struggling Michigan picked up their fourth consecutive win against Ohio State. This loss was an indoctrination against Ryan Day, who, despite his success, has been unable to overcome the Wolverines. This one was embarrassing. What followed was Michigan Players planting their flag on the Buckeyes logo ensuing a brawl between players, coaches, staffers, and alumni. This trend continued all over the country, showcasing why college football rocks. My favorite part of Saturday was the uncertainty of who would be matching up in the Big 12 Championship. By 10 pm it was still possible for four teams to make the game and keep their CFP chances alive. Ultimately, the most unlikely matchup between Arizona State and Iowa State will take place Saturday. Finally, how can I not mention the game of the year between rivals Georgia and Georgia Tech. At halftime, the dawgs looked dead in the water before launching a furious comeback effort in the second half. With a tied score at the end of regulation, it would take 8 entertaining overtime periods (one short of the all-time record) before Georgia pulled out on top securing their spot in the CFP. Regardless of the outcome Haynes King and the Yellowjackets put up one hell of a fight.
Championship weekend gets kicked off tomorrow night at 7 pm as Western Kentucky and Jacksonville State square off in the Conference USA chipper. We’re blessed with two more championships at 8 pm with UNLV vs Boise State in the Mountain West and Tulane vs Army in the American. After this Friday night appetizer, two noon kicks start off Saturday with Iowa State vs Arizona State in the Big 12 and Ohio and Miami (OH) playing at Ford Field for a MAC title. Our midday matchup is a rematch between SEC newcomer Texas and the Georgia Bulldogs. Marshall and Louisiana square off at 7:30 for the right to call themselves Sun Belt champs. The night closes out with Penn State and Oregon heading to Indianapolis for the Big Ten and Clemson and SMU fighting for an ACC title and CFP bid. The best part of all these games? The longest spread is just six points in the Sun Belt. We are looking at nine great games this weekend.
Let’s get into the pick.
Ohio Bobcats @ Miami (OH) RedHawks Saturday December 7 12:00 pm
OHIO @ M-OH Favored by 1.5 Points | Point Total O/U 44.5
MACtion will reach its peak Saturday morning at Ford Field when the 8-4 Miami Ohio RedHawks take on the 9-3 Ohio Bobcats. Both squads got off to slow starts before dominating conference play with records of 7-1. In classic MAC fashion, the temperature forecasts to hover between the 20’s and 30’s but don’t be surprised when the building is (relatively) packed for this in-state duel. Miami holds the all-time series at 56-42-2 and have been victorious in the last two matchups including a win this season.
Following the retirement of Frank Solich, Tim Albin has done a fantastic job turning around the Ohio football program. In 2022 and 2023 Albin led the Bobcats to 10-win seasons, including victories in the Arizona Bowl and Myrtle Beach Bowl. Additionally, Ohio appeared in the 2022 MAC title game but fell short to Toledo. Albin looks to acquire his third straight season of 10+ wins but this time do what he hasn’t been able, win a conference championship. Most of Ohio’s wins have come in dominant fashion. But what sticks out is the quality of their losses. Opening up the season on the road at Syracuse, the Bobcats were able to put up 22 points in a respectable 38-22 loss to the Orange and FBS leading passer Kyle McCord. They then padded on wins against South Alabama and FCS Morgan State before venturing into the SEC and getting their doors blown off by Kentucky. Their only other loss was to Miami, which we will discuss below. The UCF transfer and Tempe-native Parker Navarro has quarterbacked the team to nine wins and has interesting statistics. He’s thrown for 1,934 yards but produced a 1:1 TD-to-INT ratio with 10 of each. But Navarro does most of his damage on the ground rushing for 876 yards and a whopping 13 touchdowns. Navarro has been deadly in goal-to-go scenario’s all year. When he does throw the ball, he relies heavily on his senior target Coleman Owen who’s caught 70% of his touchdown passes and amassed over 1,000 yards receiving. Owen spent 5 season at the FCS level playing for the Northern Arizona Lumberjacks before utilizing his final year of eligibility to play at the FBS level. Surprisingly, Owen’s production at NAU were nowhere near this season’s numbers which is a kudos to Ohio’s scouting department on finding the diamond in the rough
In his 11th season leading the Miami RedHawks Chuck Martin has them back in the MAC championship looking to repeat and claim his third title. Miami has nowhere near the talent they did in 2023 when they finished the year 11-3. Regardless, they have come on as of late and are the favorites to win. Miami gave themselves a daunting non-con schedule out of the gates which resulted in an 0-3 start. Northwestern in week 1 was a tight contest on the Lake Michigan lakefront but ultimately a 13-6 loss. This was followed by a 27-16 downing via archrival Cincinnati, a team that is much improved from last season. Their slide was capped off by a tromping from CFP lock Notre Dame. Their first win came against a lackluster UMass squad at home but took overtime. In their first conference game against Toledo, the RedHawks fell 30-20. Through five games Miami sat at 1-4 and 0-1 in conference play. Their chances of getting to the title game looked bleak. This all changed with a dominant 38-14 win over Eastern Michigan which catapulted them on their current 7-game win streak capped off with a 28-12 victory over Bowling Green winner advances scenario in the season finally. Simply put Miami is hot. Their success on offense can be credited to their quarterback Brett Gabbert, the younger brother of NFL QB Blaine Gabbert. Gabbert quarterbacked the RedHawks to a title in 2019 but was injured for last year’s game. This season he’s thrown for 2,610 yards, 21 touchdowns and 10 interceptions. The experienced vet knows the ins and outs of this playbook and will look to end his career on a high note over his final two games. On the other side of the ball super senior Matt Salopek has anchored the defense all year long leading the team with 106 tackles and three picks. Salopek loves to throw big hits and is sneaky athletic. He will look to cause chaos.
The Pick: M-OH to Win and Cover.
Looking back at the early matchup between these two teams I like Miami to replicate the same result. They held Navarro in check both through the air and on the ground. He threw for a measly 88 yards and was picked off twice not getting into the endzone at all. They also held Rickey Hunt Jr. to just 27 yards on the ground. Ohio was not able to move the ball efficiently against the stout Miami defense. It was the exact opposite for Gabbert who threw for 178 yards and three touchdowns, all to different receivers. Gabbert was devasted injury took him away from the team last season which was likely a major factor for his return this year. Expect the highly experienced QB-coach tandem to take care of business in this one. Finally, Miami has a secret weapon in graduate assistant Ben Tarpey.
Thanks for reading!
Pav’s Lock of the Week: All Hail Altmyer
George Pavlus
November 22, 2024
Current Record: (7-3)
Welcome back to the eleventh edition of Pav’s Lock of the Week! Despite our success as of late, we had a loser last weekend as Liberty narrowly snuck out of UMass with a 1-point victory in overtime but failed to cover the 14-point spread. UMass’ kicker missed a layup field goal to close out regulation and an extra point in overtime that allowed the Flames to pick up their second straight win. They take on Western Kentucky this weekend with dramatic stakes for the right to play in the Conference USA championship game.
There are plenty more matchups this weekend with conference championship and CFP implications. The game of the weekend is undoubtedly a noon kick between the Ohio State Buckeyes and Indiana Hoosiers. Can Ryan Day avoid losing “the big game”, or will Curt Cignetti elevate Indiana to a program record 11-0? BYU looks to bounce back after a tough loss when they head into Tempe to clash with 21st ranked Arizona State. Both squads remain alive in the Big 12 title race. Speaking of the Big 12, Colorado squares off with unranked Kansas to keep their hopes alive of a title shot. Finally, my favorite game will be played at Yankee Stadium between Army and Notre Dame. Army will attempt to do what Navy could not, bring down Notre Dame and remain perfect. We’re in for a great Saturday!
Let’s get into the pick.
Illinois Fighting Illini @ Rutgers Scarlet Knights Saturday November 23 12:00 pm
ILL @ RUTG Favored by 1 Point | Point Total O/U 47.5
47 degrees and cloudy in Piscataway, New Jersey is the perfect setting for late November Big Ten football. Rutgers and Illinois have both secured bowl eligibility at 7-3 and 6-4 respectively but will look to improve which bowl game they will be selected for upon completion of the regular season. Even though Rutgers joined the Big Ten in 2014, I was surprised these programs have only played one another 8 times. Illinois holds the all-time series with a 5-3 record. The last matchup occurred in 2021, when Rutgers won 20-14 in Champaign.
Typically a Big Ten bottom dweller, Greg Schiano’s team came into the year with elevated expectations having the highest-rated recruiting class of his tenure at Rutgers. The Scarlet Knights got off to a hot start at 4-0 with wins over Virginia Tech and Washington before 4 straight to conference foes. Rutgers has gotten back on track since with convincing wins coming against Minnesota and Maryland. I’m not too high on either program so Illinois will provide a formidable test to see if Rutgers is truly back. Athan Kaliakmanis quarterbacks the offense after 2 seasons at Minnesota. The Antioch, Illinois native was a hot commodity in the portal and was a huge get for this Rutgers program. Kalaikmanis has tossed for 2,218 yards, 14 touchdowns, and 6 interceptions hovering just above a 2:1 TD-to-INT ratio. While this offense is structured to pound the ball with senior back Kyle Monangai, Kaliakmanis has already put on some stellar performances throwing for 313 yards at USC and 287 yards against UCLA (although both losing efforts). Looking at their past two wins, Kaliakmanis accumulated 240 yards in his revenge start to Minnesota and 238 yards last weekend at Maryland. He’s only missed the 180-yard threshold twice this season which speaks to his consistency throwing the football. Rutgers shines with their defense though. This unit has surrendered an average of 23.5 points per game and held both Minnesota and Maryland under 20 points. Dariel Djabome anchors the defense at the linebacker position accounting for 88 tackles, 2 sacks, and 2 forced fumbles. At 6’2” 240, Djabome is a freakish athlete whose versatility allows him to drop into coverage as well as rush the passer as a defensive end.
Similarly, Illinois has had ups and downs so far. Blazing out of the gates to 4-0 with wins against two ranked opponents in Kansas and Nebraska, the Illini matched up with Penn State in a quasi-whiteout game at Beaver Stadium. I was in attendance for this one and watched as Illinois’ offense did a pretty good job of containing the potent Andy Kotelnicki offense. Quarterback Luke Altmyer shined in some moments, but the offense was only able to stack up 7 points against the stingy PSU defense. Nonetheless, Penn State has proven a legit CFP contender, and the fact Illinois went into a rowdy Beaver Stadium and stayed in the game proved they can play. After the loss, the Illini rattled off two more victories against Purdue and 24th ranked defending national champions Michigan. They would fall to 1st ranked Oregon the next week in what was a blowout from the first quarter in Eugene. Oregon has dismantled virtually every opponent they’ve come across so not too much stock should be put into this loss. This loss would prove to have effects going into the next week as Illinois came into their matchup with Minnesota banged up and gassed losing 25-17 at home. Last weekend the Illini got back on track after crushing Michigan State 38-16, propelling them back into the CFP top 25. Josh McCray rushed for 3 Illinois touchdowns which is his season high. The backfield is one by committee as Illinois has had three different leading rushers in games this season. The focal point on offense is Luke Altmyer. The former Ole Miss Rebel has emerged as one of the better quarterbacks in the Big Ten throwing for 2,124 yards, 18 touchdowns, and only 3 interceptions. His ability to keep the ball out of harm’s way combined with Illinois’ stout defense and elite special teams has provided them with consistency and good results.
The Pick: ILL to Cover.
I’m shocked the oddsmakers have Rutgers as any type of favorite. As mentioned the Minnesota loss should be taken with a grain of salt and outside of that Illinois has lost to two of the top 5 teams in the country. Rutgers has had some impressive moments but just as many negative results. I guess you could consider a road win against Virginia Tech as their best win but nothing jumps out like the high-profile wins that the Illini have pulled off. We should see a great QB battle between Kaliakmanis and Altmyer. Both will put up big numbers but Altmyer’s ability to take care of the football will prove the difference. Look for special teams to make an impact on a tight matchup where Illinois comes out victorious.
Thanks for reading!
Pav’s Lock of the Week: Salter Saturday
George Pavlus
November 13, 2024
Current Record: (7-2)
Welcome back to the tenth edition of Pav’s Lock of the Week! It should come as no surprise we’re coming off another winner last weekend with Alabama going into Death Valley and silencing the Tiger faithful with a crushing 42-13 victory. It’s always nice when your wager is settled by the third quarter, and you can flip to another matchup! We look to profit again in week 12 and bring our winning percentage to a ridiculous 80%.
Before diving into week 12 I have a few games from week 11 to touch on. First up is the Georgia Bulldogs, who were decisively handled by Mississippi on Saturday. The Dawgs debuted at #3 in the first College Football Playoff rankings so it should be interesting to see where they drop when the new bracket is released Tuesday evening. Moving down to the fourth-ranked team, the Miami Hurricanes. Looking to avenge last season’s embarrassing loss to Georgia Tech (where they had won the game if they kneeled the ball out) Mario Cristobal’s squad fell 28-23 due to more late-game miscues. The Hurricanes are now second in the ACC behind SMU. Finally, Indiana picked up a win against national title defenders Michigan to go to 10-0 for the first time in program history. Curt Cignetti has something serious brewing in Bloomington. Indiana has a bye this weekend before their biggest test in Ohio State.
The slate this weekend is a bit of a mixed bag before the last two weeks of the regular season really heat up. The most notable game is an SEC battle between Georgia and Tennessee. Major SEC title game implications there. A 10:15 pm broadcast from Provo is another highlight from Saturday. Kansas is coming off a huge win against Iowa State and will look to transfer that momentum to snap BYU’s perfect record.
Let’s get into the pick.
Liberty Flames @ Massachusetts Minutemen Saturday November 16 12:00 pm
LIB Favored by 14 Points @ MASS | Point Total O/U 52.5
A noon kick between Liberty and UMass is most likely not high up on many people’s Saturday watchlist. The Minutemen are one of the worst teams in the country and haven’t provided much excitement when hitting the turf. On the flip side, Liberty came into the year with expectations to at the very least win a Conference USA title with aspirations to make their first-ever CFP appearance. While the latter goal is off the table the Flames still have an outside chance at making the conference championship game with Western Kentucky and Sam Houston State still on their schedule. Regardless, if they win out the Flames will need to get some help if they want a chance to repeat as conference champs. These out-of-conference foes have only met 6 times previously. The Minutemen took the first matchup but since then Liberty has won 5 straight, most recently winning 49-25 a season ago.
In 2019 the infamous Hugh Freeze took over as Head Coach in Lynchburg setting a standard for the Liberty football program. Freeze led the flames to strictly winning seasons, most notably a 10-1 campaign in 2020 that was capped off with a victory in the Cure Bowl. Following Freeze’s departure, Liberty snatched the rising Jamey Chadwell from Coastal Carolina where he had massive success with Sun Belt legend Grayson McCall. Taking over last year Chadwell immediately dominated with an undefeated regular season and Conference USA title beating New Mexico State (and Diego Pavia). The Flames were awarded a New Year’s 6 Bowl game but were dismantled by Oregon. Much of the Flame’s success can be attributed to their star quarterback Kaidon Salter. With Salter returning this season the expectations were to match 2023’s success. The Flames got off to a good start to the season rattling off 5 straight wins but were derailed in week 9 when they fell victim to one of the biggest upsets of the year losing to Kennesaw State. Looking to respond strongly the following week, the Flames fell to a very strong Jacksonville State squad. These two straight losses significantly hurt the Flame’s chances at making the Conference USA title game and could have easily derailed the season as a whole. Instead, the Flames dialed it in and picked up a 37-17 road win at Middle Tennessee State last weekend. They will look to replicate this road domination on Saturday.
The biggest hurtle this team has had to overcome is the significant decline in Kaidon Salter’s production. In 2023, Salter threw for 2,876 yards, 32 touchdowns, and posted a 176.6 rating. Through 8 games this season he’s only thrown for 1,581 yards, 13 touchdowns, and a 137.2 rating. The decline in production can be attributed to losing weapons on the outside. More likely though is the fact Salter put a lot on tape in 2023 and teams have been able to gameplan much more effectively for the stud QB. Despite the downtick in production, Salter has continued to take tremendous care of the football with just three interceptions. Coming off a nice performance and taking on a weaker opponent expect Salter to take some more risks down the field. The true bread and butter of the offense is the running attack. Chadwell has made it a point of emphasis in recruiting to beef up the offensive line to carve out holes for the Flames top two rushers. Quinton Cooley is their bell cow back having rushed for 851 yards and 8 touchdowns. The senior is averaging 6 yards a carry and will be looking to exploit a subpar ground defense from UMass. The other dominant force is Salter, whose running ability under center is amongst the best in the country. Kaidon’s amassed 440 yards and 3 touchdowns rushing. These stats are still nowhere near last year’s productivity but he remains a threat to carry the ball every play. Like the offense line, firming up the defense was a priority for Chadwell in the offseason. The results have been pretty good with Liberty allowing over 30 points just once all season long. With that being said, there hasn’t been a game where the defense has “taken over”. Liberty’s schedule is one of the easiest in the nation, yet teams seem to consistently hang 20+ on the Flames week after week. The defense allowed just 17 last weekend to Middle Tennessee and project to play well against UMass’ unit.
Since reviving the football program in 2012 UMass has been awful. Independent since their 2016 departure from the MAC, the Minutemen haven’t won more than 4 games. They’ve also had three one-win seasons and a winless campaign in 2020 (only 4 games played due to Covid). The current HC Don Brown took over one of the most difficult jobs in 2022 and hasn’t done much to turn things around. If you take one look at Warren McGuirk Alumni Stadium it shouldn’t come as a surprise that talented players want nothing to do with the program. Contrary to that sentiment is the fact Brown was able to scoop Taisun Phommachanh out of the transfer portal. The former Avon Old Farms three-star bounced around from Clemson to Georgia Tech before finding a starting role with the Minutemen. He showed brief flashes of potential in 2023 and projected to put together a competent 2024. His results to this point were mixed throwing for 1,590 yards, 8 touchdowns, and 6 interceptions. Regardless, we can throw his stats out the window as he suffered a season-ending lower-body injury in their matchup with Mississippi State. The man under center for UMass going forward will be true freshman AJ Hairston. Coming out of Monarch High School in Pompano Beach, Florida, Hairston was a three-star recruit choosing UMass over the likes of Miami and Western Michigan. Hairston went 7/11 and threw a touchdown in his relief effort against Mississippi State. It will be interesting to see how he plays coming off a full week of practice. While I don’t expect much, he could provide a spark for a team that’s struggled to score all year long.
Something I found extremely funny when analyzing UMass is how difficult their schedule composition is. A team so terrible really put themselves in a tough spot. Their schedule features Missouri, Mississippi State, Georgia, Liberty, and Miami Ohio. Three SEC squads and two defending conference champions would be a struggle for any G5 squad, let alone UMass. It’s also worth pointing out the two wins on the record came against FCS competition in Central Connecticut State and Wagner. Even when facing off against CCSU the defense surrendered 31 points at home, yikes!
The Pick: LIB to Win and Cover.
Liberty’s two losses could have derailed their season but after watching a spirited win at Middle Tennessee it looks like the Flames took the losses as motivation. The past two years they were expected to dominate Conference USA and faced minimal adversity. Now that they, and Kaidon Salter, have their backs against the wall with no margin for error I believe we see them takeover to close out the season. The tough defense I discussed should have no problem stopping UMass on the ground and I see them having all the answers for a young and inexperienced quarterback. The Flames don’t just want to win this matchup, they want to run up the score and shut up the critics who are calling their 2023 run a fluke. Expect a blowout in Amherst!
Thanks for reading!
Pav’s Lock of the Week: Back Bama
George Pavlus
November 8, 2024
Current Record: (6-2)
Welcome back to the ninth edition of Pav’s Lock of the Week! We’re coming off another winning pick after Air Force supplied an easy cover despite taking a 20-3 loss to Army, who kept their undefeated season on track Saturday. They will take on their toughest opponent of the year going on the road to play North Texas as 5-point favorites. That win brings our running total up to 6-2. Regardless of the fact I’ve been handing out winners left and right, I’m not satisfied.
The slate this weekend is absolutely juiced. After scanning the board, I struggle to find value in many of the games. That’s a great sign though for a weekend filled with drama-packed action. The most intriguing game for me is easily the Holy War matchup between 9th ranked BYU and Utah. Although the Utes have struggled with inconsistency all year, with home field advantage I wouldn’t be shocked to see them put an end to BYU’s Cinderella season.
Let’s get into the pick.
Alabama Crimson Tide @ Louisiana State Tigers Saturday, November 9, 7:30 pm
ALA Favored by 2.5 Points @ LSU | Point Total O/U 58.5
Alabama having two losses and being ranked outside the top 10 by week 11 is not something we are used to seeing. Yet with the expansion of the Playoff, the Crimson Tide’s national title hopes are still alive and well. Similarly, despite the two losses LSU has to their name, they are very much in the CFP hunt. In fact, the winner of this game will position themselves with an above 65% chance to make the dance whereas the loser can just about guarantee missing out. The biggest game of the year for either program, which explains why College Gameday will be in Baton Rouge to cover the pregame festivities. There have been some great matchups between these schools in the past. Alabama holds the all-time series 56-27 and won last year’s tilly 42-28.
Kalen DeBoer got off to a hot start after taking over for the legendary Nick Saban, rattling off four straight wins including an epic W over the Georgia Bulldogs. Many praised DeBoer for keeping the Crimson Tide’s tradition of dominance alive. This was all before a 40-35 loss to SEC laughingstock Vanderbilt, in what was one of the biggest upsets of all time. This loss has aged nicely though as the Commodores have flirted with the AP rankings and are positioned to end up ranked come season end. Alabama also lost for the second time in the last three years at Neyland Stadium. This was after narrowly escaping South Carolina the week before after SC botched the two-point attempt to tie the game in the waning seconds of the 4th quarter. At this point, DeBoer’s successful opening to the campaign had drifted from everyone’s mind and the panic button was getting hit. Alabama responded with a 34-0 demolition of the Missouri Tigers and appear to be back on track. Coming off a bye, how will DeBoer’s squad be prepared for another road matchup with a ranked team (the source of their only losses)? One thing I can guarantee is that Jalen Milroe will be locked in with his leadership and quarterback play. The 6’2” junior out of Katy, Texas came into the season as one of the favorites to win the Heisman trophy and massive expectations. Milroe may be out of the Heisman conversation but has put together a very impressive resume quarterbacking the Crimson Tide. Milroe has tossed for nearly 2,000 yards, 13 touchdowns, toting a QBR of 80.7 putting him 12th in the country. Milroe has already tied his career high for rushing touchdowns getting into the promised land 12 times. Aside from being one of the most dynamic dual threats in America, what makes Milroe elite is his intrinsic leadership qualities. These have especially shown in big games and big moments. Examples include the crazy ending to last year’s Iron Bowl and this year’s matchup with Georgia. Jalen Milroe also has the luxury of having should-be-high-school-senior Ryan Williams on the outside catching passes. As one of the youngest players in the country, Williams plays like a seasoned veteran. The true game-breaker has amassed 700 yards and scored 7 touchdowns. Williams is an elite route runner, but his strength lies in what he can do with the ball in his hands after the catch, as is evident by his 20 YPC average. Williams also seems to have a knack for “the moment”.
The offense has been the calling card for Alabama all year. The Tide have scored above 20 points in all but one game and have scored 34+ in 6. The defense has done its part though for the most part only allowing 30+ to Georgia and Vanderbilt. I particularly enjoy the dynamism in Bama’s secondary. The DBs have 11 picks, with 3 different players collecting 2 interceptions. One of these Ballhawks is Sophomore Keon Sabb who’s singled out opposing top WRs and taken them out of games. Sabb doesn’t get thrown at much and for good reason. Outside of Sabb Bama has guys at all positions who can make big-time plays. Of not is their defensive front which has bottlenecked rushing attacks all year. Look for them to shut down the run again on Saturday.
I’ll keep my coverage of LSU short as they were the lock of the week in week 8, downing Arkansas and cashing our ticket. A no-doubter, Garrett Nussmeier passed for 233 yards, but the story was Caden Durham who rushed for 101 yards and 3 touchdowns. The defense played strong allowing just 10 points on the road. LSU followed up this performance by walking into College Station and getting worked by Texas A&M 38-23. Nussmeier again put up big numbers: 405 yards to pair with 2 touchdowns. What he didn’t do was take care of the football, with three interceptions. He will need to dial in where he goes with the football against Alabama’s secondary. Surprisingly, coming off his monster performance, Caden Durham was nowhere to be found. With just 15 yards off of 11 carries, he was a microcosm of LSU’s inability to run the football. They totaled just 24 yards on the ground, which is concerning heading into a matchup with another elite defensive front.
The Pick: ALA to Win and Cover.
Alabama’s kryptonite has been taking on quality opponents on the road. No disrespect to Knoxville but Death Valley will also be the toughest environment this team has gone into yet. I see this as motivation for DeBoer’s team. Coming off a bye week I find it impossible to fade a team with a leader like Jalen Milroe who won’t allow his guys to be underprepared or undermotivated. The matchup also strongly favors the Crimson Tide, specifically their defense and LSU’s offense. LSU won’t be able to run the ball at all. The Tigers will have to be flawless in taking care of the football and hope Bama’s offense stalls which I find extremely unlikely. The Tide win this by at least 5.
Thanks for reading!
Pav’s Lock of the Week: Fly Like A Falcon
George Pavlus
October 31, 2024
Current Record: (5-2)
Welcome back to the eighth edition of Pav’s Lock of the Week! Despite much of our recent success, we dropped last week’s pick in rage inducing fashion as Oklahoma State sold a cover in the weaning moments of the fourth quarter last Saturday. Luckily, that marks just our second loss of the season and brings our running total to an extremely profitable 5-2. We look to get back in the win column this weekend.
Apart from our blunder early Saturday morning there were many games of note last weekend. Texas narrowly escaped Nashville with a 3-point win over the RANKED Vanderbilt Commodores, bouncing back from their first loss of the season to Georgia. Alabama was another SEC team that got right toppling Missouri at home 34-0. Missouri has dropped out of the top 25 and looked horrendous against competent opponents. Texas A&M downed LSU by 15 in impressive fashion reigniting their College Football Playoff chances. Finally, Notre Dame put an end to Navy’s undefeated campaign crushing the Midshipmen 51-14 at MetLife Field.
This weekend our slate has bangers scattered throughout. Friday night will feature three matchups, with the most intriguing being an 8:00 pm clash between San Diego State and 15th ranked Boise State. This game serves as another chance for Boise to add to their CFP resume and an opportunity for Heisman hopeful Ashton Jeanty to display his skillset in primetime. The Oregon Ducks look to defend their claim as the top team in the land on Saturday against the defending national champion Michigan Wolverines. As 2+ touchdown favorites, it will be interesting to see if the Ducks can rise to the occasion playing on the road at the Big House for the first time as Big Ten members.
Finally, the clear-cut game of the week is a noon kick in State College, PA. The 4th ranked Ohio State Buckeyes led by lifelong PSU fan Will Howard, will look to end the Nittany Lion’s undefeated season. After taking a breather from CFB attendance last week, yours truly will be boots on the ground to take in this beauty of a Big Ten matchup.
Let’s get into the pick.
Air Force Falcons @ Army Black Knights Saturday, November 2, 12:00 pm
AFA @ ARMY Favored by 22.5 Points | Point Total O/U 41.5
The most important thing about college football is tradition. The Commander’s Classic between Army and Air Force is one of the best traditions in the sport. No matter record or ranking, all bets are off when these two programs grace the gridiron and compete for the Commander-in-Chief’s trophy. Surprisingly, Air Force has absolutely dominated Army winning 38 of the 58 service academy matchups. West Point took the previous game, though heavy underdogs to a strong Air Force squad last season.
This year’s game has a significantly different flavor to it than usual. That’s due to Army coming in at 7-0, ranked 21st, and vying for a legitimate spot in the College Football Playoff. Army also has a goal that he hasn’t had since 2004, winning a conference championship. After leaving Conference USA in 04, the Black Knights were independent until joining the American Conference this season. Although this game won’t impact American standings, winning the conference depends on the moment they carry through this game. Something uncharacteristic from Jeff Monken’s team is that they have a highly explosive offense this season, averaging over 40 points per game. Fans used to seeing a lockdown defense to make up for a lackluster offense will be shocked if they haven’t tuned into a game up to this point. The man under center partially responsible for this success is senior Bryson Daily. While only passing for 629 yards, Daily is averaging a passing touchdown a game. More importantly, this kid does not give away the football, and that’s not hyperbole. Daily has thrown no interceptions on the year. His intelligence has contributed to an 89.6 QBR, putting him 4th in the country. What has made Daily so successful is his ability to utilize his legs. He’s already amassed his season total from last year and gone for 909 and 19 touchdowns. I had to reread that number about four times to make sure it wasn’t an error. The fact Daily is ranked 4th in QBR combined with 19 rushing touchdowns is Bazar.
Even though the offense is significantly better than usual, that doesn’t mean the defense has taken any steps backward. Army has allowed more than two scores just once the whole season. That came last week when East Carolina put up 28 points, which was double the previous high total the defense gave up. As expected, Army’s top three tacklers are all linebackers. Brett Gerena, Kalib Fortner, and Andon Thomas all have 30+ tackles on the year and play hardnose old school football on a consistent basis. When combing through the stats consistency was what stuck out most for this team, which makes perfect sense as a service academy. The Black Knight’s also have playmakers on the outside as junior Casey Larkin and sophomore Jaydan Mayes both have two picks on the season. Mayes has been an absolute stud, getting on the field at West Point as a sophomore is one thing, but making game changing plays is another. Another nugget I found insane is senior kicker Trey Gronotte’s stats. Gronotte has been perfect, hitting 37/37 extra points and 3/3 field goals. I don’t know if it’s more impressive that Gronotte is perfect through 7 games or that Army has only attempted 3 field goals.
Air Force comes into this contest on the opposite end of the spectrum. The Falcons are 1-6, with their lone win a measly 15-point victory against FCS Merrimack in week 1. Since then, they’ve dropped 6 straight with only two of those games being 1-score affairs. This is unlike the teams Troy Calhoun has recruited and developed over the past few years. Between 2021 and 2023, the Falcons rattled of records of 10-3, 10-3, and 9-4. The problem is much of the production from those great teams is now gone. Realistically, this was always going to be a rebuilding project in Colorado Springs. The offense looks much similar to a traditional service academy unit. The quarterback play has been as close to nonexistent as you can get. Junior John Busha will start at QB for the Falcons and not much should be expected. Busha has thrown for 415 yards, 1 touchdown, and 5 interceptions making him one of the worst quarterbacks in the nation statistically. Don’t hold your breath as he doesn’t make up for his lack of arm talent with eye-popping rushing stats like Daily. There are not many other bright spots anywhere else on this offense worth noting. Expect the Falcons to utilize 4+ running backs and incorporate lots of jet sweeps. Their leading rusher is a wide receiver.
The defense hasn’t been good either. Better than the offense, but not good by any stretch of the imagination. Their inability to stop the run and also give up explosive passes is a core reason why their leading tackler is Camby Goff, a defensive back. DBs actually account for 6 of their top 8 tacklers, a terrible recipe for stopping an opposing offense.
The Pick: Air Force to Cover.
So, after trashing Air Force and hyping up Army I’m riding with the Falcons? Many of you may think I’ve lost it. Two words allow us to throw out much of what I just wrote: spot play. For those not well versed in the terminology, a spot play examines variables affecting the game other than just the information above. The biggest factor is that this is a service academy matchup, which means we throw anything and everything out of the window. These games are always tight. Additionally, the oddsmakers know the casuals see a bottom dweller in Air Force going on the road to take on a ranked Army team. The number of bettors running to the window to wager on the Black Knights is astounding. 22.5 points in this one? Yea right give me Air Force any day.
Thanks for reading!
Pav’s Lock of the Week: Praise the Paddle Techs
George Pavlus
October 24, 2024
Current Record: (5-1)
Welcome back to edition seven of Pav’s Lock of the Week! As many of you have become accustomed to, we had another winner last week as LSU dominated Arkansas 34-10 (in a game where they were only favored by 2.5). Honestly, I’ve never been more confident in my ability to read the board, as is evident by this series turning into a literal lock fest. We look to continue winning this week.
Before getting into week 9 (how is it already week 9?) let’s highlight a few key news stories from week 8. In what projected to be a potential game of the year, we witnessed a bit of a snoozefest between Georgia and Texas. The Dawgs jumped out to an early lead and never looked back, despite an interesting benching of Quinn Ewers for Arch Manning and then a reversal back to Ewers. I’m intrigued to see how the Longhorns bounce back this week playing a RANKED Vanderbilt squad after getting served their “welcome to the SEC” moment last week. Bouncing to Knoxville, the Tennessee Volunteers won their second straight home game against the Crimson Tide 24-17, dealing Alabama a second loss by week 8 for the first time since Nick Saban’s first season on the Bama sideline. Alabama now must likely win out to have a shot at the playoff. If this wasn’t a column dedicated to this week’s pick I could dive into about 5 more games because last Saturday was electric. The last recap comes from week 9 though, with undefeated Liberty losing to winless Kennesaw State as 28.5-point favorites, shattering the Flames hopes of a CFP appearance. This is the first win in program history for the Owls since making the FBS jump.
I say this every week, but I think there’s a chance week 9 provides similar fireworks. Undefeated BYU makes the trek down to the Bounce House where UCF is actually favored. We’ll see if the Cougar’s magic can translate to a day game down South. 14th-ranked Texas A&M plays host to 8th-ranked LSU in an all-time uniform game with LSU rocking whiteouts and the Aggies suiting up in a menacing all-black fit. Finally, my favorite game of the weo0ekend is a noon kick at Met Life Stadium. Undefeated, 24-ranked Navy will take on 12th-ranked Notre Dame in their annual rivalry matchup. Saturday will involve the highest stakes we’ve seen in that matchup in years.
Let’s get into the pick.
Oklahoma State Cowboys @ Baylor Bears Saturday October 26, 3:30 pm
OKST @ BAY Favored by 7 Points | Point Total O/U 64.5
This week we’re going southwest to analyze two underperforming 3-4 teams squaring off in Waco, Texas. Oklahoma State has severely missed expectations being ranked 17th in the preseason poll. While expectations for the Baylor Bears were much less ambitious, they haven’t had the season Dave Aranda envisioned coming in 1-3 in Big 12 play. The Cowboys own the all-time series 23-19, taking the win in 2022’s rendition of the showdown.
Dave Aranda’s time leading the Baylor football program has been one of the most volatile I’ve ever seen. His only winning season since taking over for Matt Rhule in 2020 was when they won the Big 12 Championship against an Oklahoma State team that was poised to make the College Football Playoff (when it was only 4 teams). It remains up in the air which end of .500 the Bears will close out, but the Big 12 Championship is completely out of the question. Baylor’s two FBS wins came against an abysmal Air Force squad and Texas Tech last week. I actually give Baylor a lot of credit for going into Lubbock, which is one of the toughest places to play in the country, and putting up 59 points on a Texas Tech team that’s had a lot of positive momentum as of late. The win came on the back of Junior QB Sawyer Roberton (a Lubbock local) who threw for 274 yards and a jaw-dropping five touchdowns. This brings his season totals to 1,319 passing yards, 14 touchdowns, and only 3 interceptions. Most impressive is Robertson’s 83.7 QBR ranking him 9th nationally. Robertson has done a tremendous job of keeping the ball out of opponent’s hands but it wasn’t until last week that we’ve seen him be so dynamic with his arm. It will be interesting to see if he can carry it over to Saturday, or if it was simply the hometown boost that converted him into a gunslinger. His favorite target is 6’1” Josh Cameron, who leads the team with 7 receiving touchdowns, accounting for nearly half of those that Sawyer Robertson has thrown. Robertson wasn’t on many scouts’ radar coming into the year but has undoubtedly played his way into NFL draft talks.
Unlike the receiver room, the Bears have been handing the ball off by committee. Bryson Washington, Dawson Pendergrass, and Richard Reese all have between 43 and 53 carries heading into week 9. Washington has performed the best posting 302 yards, 3 touchdowns, and 5.7 YPR. Last week was his best game of the season by far, going for 116 yards and 2 touchdowns. While Washington appears to have captured the starting role for Saturday, I imagine this unit continues to operate by committee. One thing is clear: The Bears operate a pass-heavy offense. The defense is very similar in the fact that there’s not 1 or 2 gamebreakers flying around. What’s not in question is who leads the defense emotionally. That’s senior linebacker Matt Jones. #2 has just 2 sacks on the year, but 33 solo tackles, many of which have been bone-crushing hits over the middle. Overall, Baylor’s defense has not been strong up to this point, allowing an average of nearly 30 points in their last six contests. They have been shredded specifically through the air which may play to their favor Saturday with Oklahoma State operating run-heavy.
Love him or hate him, Mike Gundy is a college football legend. In his 20th year leading the Oklahoma State program, he is the second longest-tenured College Football coach trailing only Iowa’s Kirk Ferentz. He’s also been the definition of consistency, recording only one losing season which came in his first season all the way back in 2005, that’s pretty incredible. Being under .500 at this stage in the year is uncharted territory for Gundy and the Cowboys and nobody expected them to be playing this badly. In fact, the Cowboys were picked to finish third in the conference preseason poll. They’ve now rattled off four straight losses within the conference and are out of contention. The biggest surprise has been the disappearance of Ollie Gordon II, a unanimous preseason first-team All-American. In his first five games against FBS opponents, Gordon rushed for 49, 53, 42, 76, and 50 yards. This is a guy who put up over 2,000 total yards last year! While much of the blame can be passed on to the offensive line, it’s simply unacceptable the way Gordon has performed up until this point. Luckily, Gordon seemed to get his step back last week against the undefeated BYU Cougars. Ollie rushed for 117 yards and got into the endzone twice. Gordon will look to build off this and finish out his Oklahoma State career on a high note. Another staple for this team over the past few years has been Alan Bowman. The senior has always played with immense passion when commanding the offense but has had troubles so far. Bowman’s had no issue airing the ball out, tossing for 1,738 yards and 13 tuds. His problem has been managing the football as he’s given the ball away through the air 9 times. While Gordon took a step forward against BYU Bowman took a step back. In his worst game of the year, Bowman threw for a measly 85 yards, 1 touchdown, and a pick. These two need to bring it together if they want to pick up their first conference win. Like Baylor, this defense has gotten shredded. In Big 12 play the Cowboys have given up an average of 35 points. While the over is not my pick, expect a boatload of points in this game due to subpar defensive play. Safety Trey Tucker has been one of the few bright spots, accumulating 69 tackles and 2 picks. Waco native Korie Black leads the team with 3 picks and will be fired up to be playing in McLane Stadium on Saturday afternoon. While they have given up an absurd number of points, Oklahoma State has generated lot’s of turnovers. Robertson’s ability to protect the football will be tested.
The Pick: OKST to Cover.
This number is WAY too high for Baylor. I think the oddsmakers might be inflating the spread a bit after an anomalous win against Texas Tech last week. That took Sawyer Robertson having the game of his life in his hometown, something I don’t see replicating in Waco. On the flip side, Ollie Gordon II is inevitable. Despite a couple of bad games, he is bound to begin popping off and breaking games like we’re used to seeing. Bowman will bounce back as well, leading to the first game of the year where both are playing competently. The biggest factor is Mike Gundy. His teams are known to sleepwalk certain parts of the schedule only to come back and slaughter in a spot like this. Look for the Cowboys to win this one outright.
Thanks for reading, Ride ‘em Cowboy!
Pav’s Lock of the Week: Purple Reign
George Pavlus
October 17, 2024
Current Record: (4-1)
Welcome back to the sixth edition of Pav’s Lock of the Week! We’re coming off a no-doubter, as Louisiana Monroe got us back in the green with a 38-21 victory over Southern Miss. This brings our overall record to 4-1, equating to a near 285% ROI.
Week 7 of college football not only gave us A1 Saturday entertainment but also marked the start of weekday College football. The first iteration of Tuesday night CFB featured undefeated Liberty pushed to the brink as they gutted out a 31-24 OT win against FIU to keep their hopes alive for a College Football Playoff bid. The most notable moment of Saturday occurred when 4 nailbiters took place simultaneously (I was lucky enough to watch all four at once via a glorious quad box at Paloma Park in Athens, GA). The results? Oregon 3 – Ohio State 31, LSU 29 – Ole Miss 26, Vanderbilt 20 – Kentucky 13, and Tennessee 23 – Florida 17. Biggest takeaway? Dillon Gabriel and the Oregon Ducks are LEGIT.
I’m not sure if week 8 will be able to top the quantity of drama last week, but the slate is stacked. Georgia heads into Austin looking to upset the 1st ranked Texas Longhorns. It’ll be the first time the Dawgs are underdogs in over 3 years, and rightfully so as the Longhorns are firing on all cylinders. The two other top matchups include 7th-ranked Alabama vs 11th-ranked Tennessee and 24th-ranked Michigan vs 22nd-ranked Illinois. Both should be tightly contested contests with major CFP implications. A final story to track over the weekend is the undefeated service academies aiming to stay perfect. The 23rd-ranked Army gets East Carolina at home while the 25th-ranked Navy comes off a bye looking to defend home field from the Charlotte 49ers.
Finally, in what’s becoming a bit of a trend I’ll be boots on the ground for another great matchup this Saturday. I couldn’t pass up the opportunity to catch a game at the temporary Lanny and Sharon Martin Stadium situated right on beautiful Lake Michigan, especially with a sunny 70 degrees in the forecast. Northwestern will be taking on Wisconsin in what projects to be a classic 11 am Big Ten defensive battle.
Let’s get into the pick.
Louisiana State Tigers @ Arkansas Razorbacks Saturday October 19, 7:00 pm
LSU Favored by 2.5 Points @ ARK | Point Total O/U 55.5
With the elimination of divisions in the SEC, it’s become paramount to keep conference losses to 1 or fewer to have a shot at playing in the conference championship game. As of now, both teams fit that mold. LSU is 2-0 and Arkansas 2-1, coming into Saturday’s contest at Razorback Stadium. The all-time series favors the Tigers, who’ve won 44 of the 69 times these programs have faced off. Since taking over in 2022, Brian Kelly has beaten the Razorbacks twice.
In the preseason SEC poll, Arkansas was projected to finish third to last in the conference. This team didn’t let the negative noise affect them. At 4-2 Sam Pittman’s Razorbacks have gotten off to a great start and are very much in the mix, and with a win on Saturday could move into third place. Arkansas’ two losses are quite formidable, a week 1 double overtime loss on the road to Oklahoma State and a 4-point defeat to Texas A&M. More impressively, they’re coming off a 19-14 field storming upset, taking down the 4th ranked Tennessee Volunteers courtesy of a late touchdown from Malachi Singleton. The Razorbacks junior signal caller, Taylen Green threw for 266 yards but suffered a knee injury which allowed Singleton to take over and ultimately score the game-winner. Green projects to be back under center Saturday and was not listed on the injury report. When asked about Green’s status, Pittman said, “He’s still not full speed yet but we certainly think there’s a possibility that he can get there. We’ll have to wait and see there, obviously, we have two more practices and a walk, but have been encouraged about his progression this week.” While a limited sample, Singleton appears to be a viable option with a similar playstyle if Green is unable to go. It’s worth noting Green has a 1:1 TD-to-interception ratio, so another look at the position isn’t the end of the world.
Regardless, Arkansas’ plan of attack on offense will remain the same as it has all year long: pounding the rock. Senior running back Ja’Quinden Jackson is averaging 5.7 yards per carry and has gotten into the endzone 10 times already (7th most in the country). At 233-pounds, Jackson has been a tank in the red zone. The combination of a run-threat QB and Jackon’s efficiency has allowed the Razorbacks to operate in one of the highest red zone scoring units in the nation. Luckily, Arkansas also has the perfect complement to run-heavy offense in their stout defensive unit. DC Travis Williams has really elevated the defense over their past three games, letting up 14 points to Auburn, 21 to Texas A&M, and only 14 to the potent Tennessee offense. The defense doesn’t include anyone with huge numbers but rather operates by committee with 5 players accumulating 25 or more tackles. LSU will prove another tough test with their usual dynamic offense, but the fact the Razorbacks have already faced similar quality is comforting.
Season openers have been Brian Kelly’s Achilles heel as the coach of LSU. This season’s week 1 heartbreaking loss to USC in Las Vegas moved Kelly to 0-3 in week 1 matchups since taking over in 2022. Since the loss the Tigers have responded emphatically, rattling off five straight W’s. Last week, the Tigers walked off Ole Miss 29-26, as Garrett Nussmeier hit Kyren Lacy for the game-winning touchdown in overtime. Nussmeier, who is widely considered to be one of the best quarterbacks in the country, did not play well for most of the game. He completed only 43% of his passes and tossed two interceptions but came alive late for three touchdowns and ultimately a victory that sent Tiger Stadium into an uproar. Expect Nussmeier to carry over his play from the closing moments of last week’s win. The Louisiana native has put up fabulous numbers all season, tossing for nearly 2,000 yards, 18 touchdowns, and an 82.3 QBR (13thin FBS). I expect Nussmeier to make taking care of the ball a focal point coming off the 2-interception performance, which shouldn’t be too difficult as Arkansas hasn’t done a great job of creating turnovers. Known for producing the likes of Justin Jefferson, Odell Beckham Jr., Jarvis Landry, and Ja’Marr Chase the LSU it should come as no surprise that the receiver room is stacked. With three players surpassing the 30 reception and 300-yard threshold, Nussmeier has a boatload of options around him. Despite the depth, it’s no secret who Nussmeier’s go-to option is. That would be the uber-talented senior Kyren Lacy. The Thibodaux, LA native already has 463 receiving yards and will hear his name called in Green Bay come April.
Where this LSU team gets scary is on the defensive side of the ball, as is normal with a Brian Kelly run program. The strength of this unit is also like many of his past renditions, as the hard-hitting linebackers and safeties have become the leaders. Even with the tremendous loss of solidified lottery selection Harold Perkins Jr. to a torn ACL, the Tigers tout two dynamic backers in Whit Weeks and Greg Penn II. Weeks is 11th in the country with 56 total tackles, while Penn II has posted an impressive 47. Up to this point teams haven’t been able to bust many runs past this linebacking core, and when they have senior safety Major Burns (all-name team) has laid the boom with his 35 tackles. The weak spot of this unit is in the secondary.
The Pick: LSU to win and cover.
They say styles make fights and that’s why I see LSU covering this number and potentially running away with the game. Arkansas’ entire offense is based around running the ball with Jackson, and LSU’s defense is built to bolster the ground attack. I don’t see either of the Razorbacks options at QB taking advantage of the subpar LSU secondary. While Arkansas’ defense has been great, their inability to create turnovers will simply not provide their offense with good field position opportunities and I can’t see them putting together sustained drives. Finally, Arkansas’ kicker Kyle Ramsey has been awful this season making just 58.3% of his field goal attempts, this is a recipe for points being left out there helping LSU cover the number.
Thanks for reading, Geaux Tigers!
Pav’s Lock of the Week: Warhawk Weekend
George Pavlus
October 11, 2024
Current Record: (3-1)
Welcome back to the fifth edition of Pav’s Lock of the Week! We look to bounce back from our first loss of the season, courtesy of a horrendous performance from the Missouri Tigers. A&M got back on track with a decisive 41-10 demolition, which kicked off a chain reaction of improbable upsets all around the nation. Hopefully, not too many of our readers were on Alabama, as they were taken down by the Diego Pavia-led Vanderbilt Commodores in what was one of the biggest upsets over the past 20 years.
Per usual, October has ushered in not only the changing of the leaves but chaos in the college football landscape. My favorite storyline is Army and Navy both being 5-0 for the first time since 1945. Both service academies have Notre Dame looming on their schedules, but if either can steal that game their chances at a CFP bid will look fantastic.
I’m not a fan of conference realignment, but the shifting landscape has set up two intriguing wrinkles this weekend. For starters, we’ll see the 2nd ranked Ohio State Buckeyes travel to Eugene for a battle with the 3rd ranked Oregon Ducks. This will mark the first time these teams have faced off since Oregon joined the Big Ten. Additionally, the storied Red River Shootout will be played between Oklahoma and Texas, but now with implications in the SEC standings.
Finally, yours truly will be boots on the ground in Athens for my first SEC football game between Mississippi State and Georgia. I couldn’t be more excited to experience Southern ball with some good eats and a couple of chilly beverages. Let’s get to this week’s pick!
Southern Miss Golden Eagles @ UL Monroe Warhawks, Saturday October 12, 5:00 pm EST
USM @ ULM Favored by 6.5 Points | Point Total O/U 41.5
When looking at the group of 5, no conference provides more entertainment than the Sun Belt, or as many have affectionately dubbed it, “the Fun Belt”. James Madison was appearing to run away with the conference until UL Monroe put an end to the Duke’s undefeated season, which included a 70-50 W against UNC. The conference is now wide open and should produce some great football for the remainder of the 2024 campaign. Saturday’s matchup between the Golden Eagles and Warhawks may prove to be a pivotal turning point for both schools. Historically, Southern Miss owns the all-time series with 6 wins to ULM’s 2. Southern Miss has won the previous 2 matchups, but Saturday will be a whole new ball game as the Golden Eagles no longer have program legend Frank Gore Jr., now a member of the Buffalo Bills.
Since taking over in 2021, Will Hall has had subpar results leading the Southern Miss program. His best season came in 2022, leading the team to a 7-6 record and a victory in the LendingTree Bowl. Outside of 2022, Hall has yet to have a winning record, and this season is shaping up for more of the same. The Golden Eagles come into Saturday boasting a record of 1-4, losing their lone conference matchup to Louisiana last week. Southern Miss has been one of the worst teams in the county up to this point. Athlon Sports has USM ranked 128th out of the 134 FBS programs. Despite the abysmal results coming out of Hattiesburg recently, there was optimism for progress after former Florida State quarterback Tate Rodemaker transferred in during the offseason. Rodemaker famously took over for the injured Jordan Travis and led the Seminoles to victory over rival Florida, keeping their undefeated season and CFP hopes alive. Despite going on to win the ACC, the Seminoles would ultimately be left out of the playoff which caused a large amount of outrage.
Thrust into an entirely different situation with Southern Miss, Rodemaker has looked awful. He’s thrown for a measly 580 yards, 4 touchdowns, and 4 picks. His 24.0 QBR lands him 123rd in the nation. Somehow, it’s even more grim in terms of running efficiency for the Golden Eagles offense. Leading rusher Rodrigues Clark has amassed a grand total of 228 yards on the ground, I’m pretty sure Ashton Jeanty had that in the first quarter last weekend. The offense has averaged 11 points against FBS competition and ranks in the bottom 10 in offensive efficiency. There’s no reason to dive any further into how bad this team’s offense is. The defensive unit isn’t much better, surrendering huge numbers in just about every game they’ve played against FBS competition for an average of 36.75 points per game. In last week’s loss to Louisiana, the Eagles gave up 410 total yards of offense and 22 first downs. It’s a challenge to find anything positive about Southern Miss.
ULM comes into this game exceeding all expectations. After being picked to finish dead last in the Sun Belt preseason poll, the Warhawks are off to a hot start going 4-1, and 2-0 in conference play. Their lone blemish was on the road against 1st ranked Texas, as Arch Manning diced up ULM 51-3. Regardless, year 1 of the Bryant Vincent era is off to a tremendous start in what was supposed to be a rebuilding year. Oklahoma transfer General Booty began the year starting under center, but it was Sophomore Aidan Armenta who threw for 147 yards and touchdown to topple James Madison last weekend. It’s unclear who will start at the position Saturday. Quarterback play has not been the strong suit for ULM to this point, so it’s not too concerning whoever ends up playing. The bulk of the offense has come from true freshman Ahmad Hardy who’s popped 379 yards on the ground to complement 4 touchdowns. The Monticello, MS native will be especially fired up to play hometown Southern Miss. I project Hardy to continue as the focal point against an extremely weak defensive front in USM.
Much of the quick success in Monroe can be attributed to the job first-year head coach Bryant Vincent has done. Vincent comes over from New Mexico, where he served as the OC and quarterbacks coach. It’s somewhat of a shock that Vincent’s team is anchored by his defense despite his offensive background. DC Earnest Hill has coached his unit to play lockdown defense in all scenarios to this point. Outside of the lopsided loss to Texas, ULM hasn’t allowed an opponent to score more than 19 points. It’s a communal effort, with five players having 24 or more tackles. With that said, Wydett Williams Jr. has cemented himself as the defensive leader leading the team with 43 tackles to go along with 2 interceptions. The strong secondary compliments a great linebacking core. Expect the Golden Eagles offense to struggle.
The Pick: UL Monroe to win and cover.
The pick really comes down to fading Southern Miss. They have shown every week that they can’t play on either side of the ball. UL Monroe is better in all phases of the game, including special teams with Max Larson missing only one field goal all season. Given that UL Monroe is at home the number doesn’t scare me. I see UL Monroe putting up at least 28 points while Southern Miss struggles to get anything on the board.
Thanks for reading, and let’s get back on track!
Pav’s Lock of the Week: Drinkwitz on Me
George Pavlus
October 3, 2024
Current Record: (3-0)
Welcome to the fourth edition of Pav’s Lock of the Week! Week 6 ushers in more fantastic matchups including a rematch of last year’s national championship game. If you’re following along at home, I gave out another winner last week to bring my record to 3-0, as the Oklahoma Sooners completed an improbable comeback taking down the Auburn Tigers.
Before hopping into the pick, we need to mention the absurdity we saw last weekend. The biggest news came from Tuscaloosa where Ryan Williams shocked the world with his 75-yard ballerina-esque touchdown to fend off a ferocious Georgia Bulldogs comeback. It’s game of the year at this point no question.
Let’s dive into another top-25 battle in the Southeastern Conference.
Missouri Tigers @ Texas A&M Aggies Saturday October 5 12:00 pm
MIZ @ TA&M Favored by 2.5 Points | Point Total O/U 49.5
On Saturday afternoon we have the pleasure of watching two College Football Playoff hopefuls duking it out in what should be one of the most entertaining games of the weekend. The Missouri Tigers (4-0) come into Kyle Field as the 9th-ranked team in the land looking to continue their dominance against the 25th-ranked Texas A&M Aggies. A&M slightly edges Mizzou with a 9-7 record all time, taking the previous matchup which took place in 2021.
In November 2023, Texas A&M shocked the nation when they bought out the remainder of Jimbo Fisher’s contract, costing them a cool $76 million. Nobody thought this was possible but at the end of the day, the oil money allowed for the beginning of the Mike Elko era. While only being a head coach for two seasons at Duke, Elko proved to be phenomenal. He led the Blue Devils to a 9-4 record in his first season and won ACC Coach of the Year. Elko now looks to utilize the plentiful resources A&M has to offer and build a title contender. Although losing their first game to Notre Dame, the Aggies have bounced back nicely, rattling off four straight victories including two conference wins. Nonetheless, the Tigers will be their biggest test to date.
Like last week, our highlighted game has uncertainty at the quarterback position. Sophomore Conner Weigman was injured in the Aggie’s second game of the season and hasn’t played since. Weigman has been practicing with the team, but Elko labeled him as a game-time decision for Saturday’s outing. If Weigman can’t go, we’ll see redshirt freshman Marcel Reed. In each of his three starts, Reed has thrown for two touchdowns and zero interceptions, most importantly winning every game. Many A&M fans are fed up with Weigman and would say they would prefer Reed to stay in the lineup. Although Weigman struggled in his week 1 start against the Irish, I would give him the edge, and if he’s healthy enough he’ll be on the field. Regardless of who the QB is, A&M will look to pound the ball with Junior back Le’veon Moss who is averaging 6.2 yards per carry on 76 attempts. Moss has stepped up when it matters, going for over 100 yards in each of their conference matchups (Arkansas & Florida). The biggest key for the Aggies will be to win the turnover battle, and their personnel sets them up with a good chance to do it. As previously mentioned, Marcel Reed has yet to throw a pick. On the flipside sophomore cornerback Marcus Ratcliffe has been disrupting offense all season long, forcing a fumble and picking off opposing QBs three times already. The defense has given them a chance to win every game allowing no more than 23 points all season long, look for more dominance from that unit.
My favorite aspect of this game is the coaching matchup. Elko’s opponent in that battle will be Eli Drinkwitz, who is undoubtedly one of the hottest coaches in college football. Drinkwitz spent his first three seasons recruiting and rebuilding a Missouri program that was notoriously a punching bag in the SEC. His efforts came full circle last season when his dynamic team went 11-2 capping off a breakthrough year with a Cotton Bowl victory against Ohio State. Drinkwitz brings back many of the playmakers from the 2023 squad, with aspirations never seen in Columbia: winning a national championship.
Luther Burden III leads the pack of elite talent on the offensive end and is continuing to prove he is a first-round NFL talent. Despite attempts by opposing secondaries to double-team Burden, he’s already grabbed 4 touchdowns and 257 receiving yards in just 4 games. The 5’11” wideout makes up for his lack of measurables with track-star speed and Greg Jennings-like route-running ability. Burden’s biggest impact isn’t his statistics, but the attention he draws from defenses. This has allowed Senior WR Theo Wease Jr. (a stud in his own right) to find openings in the defense and allot 26 receptions for 287 receiving yards, leading the team in both categories. The Tigers are DEADLY through the air. This air raid attack wouldn’t be possible without great quarterback play, and that’s exactly what Mizzou is getting from Senior QB Brady Cook. In the age of NIL and the transfer portal, it’s rare to find a quarterback who’s remained at one school for five years, but that’s exactly what Cook has done. His numbers have been good, throwing for 946 yards, 4 touchdowns, 1 interception (which came in week 1), and ranked 37thnationally in QBR. Cook’s impact on the Tigers stretches far past the numbers he puts up. The St. Louis native is one of the top emotional leaders in the country, and he elevates those around him to play at their best. Although Mizzou has played a few games that were a little tighter than they would’ve liked (Boston College and Vanderbilt), they’ve found a way to win. Cook and the Tigers simply have a culture that breeds winning.
The Pick: Missouri to Cover.
My biggest concern in this game is the fact A&M is being given a 2.5-point edge. Despite being on the road, I don’t understand how Mizzou isn’t favored by the same margin. Regardless, I can’t see Texas A&M’s offense keeping up with the Mizzou’s air raid dominance. Additionally, Missouri is coming off their bye, whereas Texas A&M is beaten up after a close call against Arkansas, as is evident from their injury report. The biggest thing to watch in this one will be the turnover battle. Whoever takes that will probably end up with the W, and I see Mizzou taking care of the ball, especially with the extra time they’ve had to prepare.
Thanks for reading, and let’s keep the run going!
Pav’s Lock of the Week: Boomer Sooner
George Pavlus
September 27, 2024
Current Record: (2-0)
Happy week 5 of CFB, and welcome back to the third edition of Pav’s Lock of the Week!
Week 4: I brought you another winner as Tulane grinded out a victory to bring our running total to 2-0! It might be my 100% success rate getting to my head, but this week’s play is my most confident yet. Before we jump in, it’s necessary to mention how beautiful the week 5 slate is with four intra-top 25 matchups taking place, highlighted by the Georgia Bulldogs heading into Tuscaloosa to take on the Alabama Crimson Tide.
This week is a big one for me personally as I’ll be boots on the ground for two games. Thursday night I’ll be at Lincoln Financial to watch Army attempt to keep their undefeated campaign going against Temple before traveling to Happy Valley for an epic 7:30 pm clash between Illinois and Penn State on Saturday.
Despite these great matchups my lock wanders elsewhere, but not far from Tuscaloosa.
Oklahoma Sooners @ Auburn Tigers Saturday September 28 3:30 pm
OU Favored by 1.5 Points @ AUB | Point Total O/U 45.5
SEC football baby, IT JUST MEANS MORE! This game should exemplify the catchphrase behind the most dominant conference in all of college football. The Oklahoma Sooners (3-1) look to bounce back at Jordan-Hare Stadium against the Auburn Tigers (2-2). Both teams come in with major question marks at quarterback which leaves a lot unknown. Surprisingly these powerhouses have only matched up twice with Oklahoma winning both times, most recently in 2017. This will be the first conference game between the two with Oklahoma moving to the SEC after realignment.
The Tigers have completely fallen off since 2019, finishing above .500 only once with a 6-5 record. The infamous Hugh Freeze is in year 2 of his turnaround effort and has more questions than answers up until this point. Auburn’s lone FBS win came at home against pot scraper New Mexico and should be taken with nothing more than a grain of salt. Their losses were served from a mediocre Arkansas squad (24-14) and ACC newcomer California (21-14). Despite the losses being one score affairs, they were both at home which erases any type of “home field advantage” from the 1.5 number currently being offered.
As mentioned, the quarterback situation for both teams are uncertain, but Auburn’s is far more concerning. Michigan State transfer Payton Thorne was brought in by Freeze to be the day 1 starter out of camp, and he went on to win the job. After a horrific four-interception outing against Cal in week 2 Thorne was benched for red-shirt freshman Hank Brown. Astonishingly, Brown gave his best effort to surpass Thorne’s shortcomings last week tossing three picks in the first half before being benched. Thorne is expected to be the starter this weekend, but it doesn’t matter who’s taking snaps if they can’t protect the football. Aside from the horrendous QB play the Tigers offense does have two bright spots in RB Jarquez Hunter and WR Keandre Lambert-Smith. Hunter has amassed 340 yards on just 48 carries (7.1 AVG) and has a receiving touchdown to go with it. The Tigers will look to pound the rock Saturday. Keandre Lambert-Smith comes over from Penn State and is an absolute gamebreaker. He has miraculously already caught five touchdowns which leads the team as no one else has more than 1. Lambert-Smith is one of the best deep threats in the country averaging 28.2 yards per catch. He will need to torch the Sooners if Auburn stands a chance.
The calling card of this Sooners team is undoubtedly its defense. This should come as no surprise when Brent Venables is your head coach and has had a couple of seasons to recruit his guys and coach them into his system. Venables takes over after the departure of offensive mastermind Lincoln Riley, who took the job at USC bringing star quarterback Caleb Williams along with. Previously Venables served as defensive coordinator under Dabo Swinney at Clemson and propelled them to a perennial ball-hawking unit. His defense this year is no exception. The only time the Sooners have given up more than 20 points was last week against fifth-ranked Tennessee whose offense is one of the best in the nation. A signature of Venables’ defenses has been athletic and hard-hitting linebackers, think Isaiah Simmons, and he has one yet again in Danny Stutsman. The senior backer leads the team with 36 tackles, anchoring the unit. Last week brought up some questions about the Sooners offense. The highly recruited Jackson Arnold has shown signs but altogether hasn’t been able to live up to the hype. Arnold has thrown a pick in his last three outings with a 54 passing yards, interception, lost fumble stat line last week before being benched. This led to true freshman Michael Hawkins Jr. entering the game. Although Hawkins wasn’t able to will the Sooners back, he proved this was his job, throwing for 132 yards and a touchdown. Venables will stick with Hawkins whose first collegiate start will be an SEC road game.
The Pick: Oklahoma to Win and Cover.
My confidence meter is off the charts for this one. The Oklahoma defense should prevent Auburn from getting anything going on the ground or through the air. This defense can match up with any offense in the country, so I expect them to have a field day with an offense as incompetent as Auburn’s. Additionally, while both teams have issues under center, I’m willing to roll the dice on Hawkins to continue playing well enough against a significantly softer defense than he faced last week. Venables is master motivator and will have his guys out for blood after a crushing loss in their first SEC game. I struggle to see a scenario where the Sooners start their tenure in the conference 0-2.
Thanks for reading, and let’s keep the run going!
Pav’s Lock of the Week: Ride the Wave
George Pavlus
September 18th, 2024
Current Record: (1-0)
Welcome back to the second edition of Pav’s Lock of the Week!
For those of you who missed last week’s article, we started the column off with a winner as Arizona State knocked off Texas State in what turned out to be one of the best games in week 3 of college football. We’re not satisfied with one winner though folks, it’s time to go on an absolute heater and give out some more winners.
Week 4 features a few marquee matchups with many schools beginning conference action but today we’ll dive into a tilt between the Sunbelt and American.
Tulane Green Wave @ Louisiana Ragin’ Cajuns Saturday 9/21 12:00 pm
TULN Favored by 3 Points @ UL | Point Total O/U 54.5
12:00 Saturday afternoon is the consensus best time of the entire week. We get to turn the TV on to 12 hours straight of football, truly exemplifying what it means to be an American. This Saturday our marathon will begin with the Tulane Green Wave (1-2) coming into Cajun Field to take on the Louisiana Ragin’ Cajuns. The 28th rendition of the in-state matchup has seen Tulane take the previous two with the all-time series leaning 23-4 in the Green Wave’s favor.
Tulane reentered the national spotlight after Willie Fritz turned the program around leading the Wave to 5 bowl games, including a 2022 Cotton Bowl victory over Caleb Williams-led USC. With Fritz leaving to take a Power 4 gig at Houston, Jon Sumrall takes over the reins. Sumrall is coming off back-to-back Sun Belt championship titles with the Troy Trojans and is now looking to get Tulane back to .500.
The good news is Sumrall has already seen Louisiana twice while coaching at Troy and beaten them in both matchups. While this is certainly an edge, his career at Tulane is off to an interesting start. Coming off two straight losses Tulane is yet to have beaten an FBS opponent entering week 4, with their lone win being a 52-0 romping of Southeastern Louisiana. It’s important to point out both losses were tightly contested matchups against two top 25’s in Oklahoma and Kansas State. Redshirt Freshman Darian Mensah lines up under center and has shown signs up to this point. Through three games he’s thrown for 713 yards and 5 touchdowns. More impressively, Mensah has posted a 65.4 QBR which puts him 47th in the land for passer rating. Mensah’s best performance came against Kansas State where he narrowly propelled Tulane to an upset of the #17 team in the country throwing for 342 yards. The defense held up well against two offenses that project to be in the top 40 in production this year. That unit is led by hard-hitting safety Bailey Despanie, who leads the team with 18 solo tackles (more than double the next player). Expect the Lafayette native to be flying all over the gridiron in his first college game at Cajun Field.
The home team is attempting to continue a perfect start to the year, as Michael Desormeaux has the Cajuns 2-0. The former UL quarterback has made a bowl every year as the bench boss of his alma mater and is seeking to keep that strike alive. Tulane will be a huge early season test for a UL team that has faced virtually no competition up to this point. They do have an FBS win on their record, but it was a 34-10 beat up on FBS newcomer Kennesaw State. For reference, Kennesaw State was basically the unanimous worst team in the country preseason. Nonetheless, Louisiana has handled its schedule and done so relatively well. Veteran QB Ben Wooldridge completed 78.9% of his passes for 189 yards and a touchdown against the Owls. Against the eye test Wooldridge has been mediocre at best and will need to step up significantly if Louisiana wants a chance. The brightest spot of this team is undoubtedly the defensive unit. UL has allowed just 20 points and 259 passing yards through the first two games of the season. There’s no question that the elite defense and balanced running attack has the potential to be good, but it’s yet to be tested.
The Pick: Tulane to Win and Cover.
Coming off back-to-back close calls against elite P4 programs Tulane is licking their chops to be playing an inferior opponent. I use inferior and not weak because Louisiana is going to have a good season, just not in this matchup. Wooldridge lacks the firepower needed to keep UL in this game. I believe Sumrall’s experience playing Louisiana is going to make a much larger impact than people are expecting, and he’ll have his guys much better prepared. I see this as a potential routing for the Green Wave.
Thanks for reading, and let’s go on a run!
Pav’s Lock of the Week: Forks Up
George Pavlus
September 11th, 2024
Welcome to the first edition of Pav’s Lock of the Week!
My name is George Pavlus and I have been making predictions on sporting events for the past three years. I specialize in NCAA football and basketball but will provide insight into every major sporting league in this column. I hope to bring accurate qualitative and model-based thoughts to this column in an attempt to provide data-driven predictions on a periodic basis.
For this column, a running record of my predictions will be kept and put at the start of each article, and feel free to message me all the hate Georgepavlus19@gmail.com. With that being said, we have one game to dive into for Thursday night.
Arizona State Sun Devils @ Texas State Bobcats 7:30 pm
ASU Favored by 2 Points @ TXST | Point Total O/U 59.5
Thursday night we are being treated to a super interesting matchup between two undefeated squads as the Sun Devils (2-0) make the trek to Bobcat Stadium as the Bobcats (2-0) attempt to defend their home turf. Despite their shared Southwestern geography, Thursday will be the first-ever matchup between these two schools, and I expect San Marcos to be rocking for the game. Anytime a Group of 5 team is hosting a power 5 opponent cappers are on high alert, and this game is no different.
Arizona State comes into this matchup fresh off a 30-23 win over Mississippi State. The Sun Devils jumped out to a 30-3 lead holding on for a victory despite the Bulldogs dropping 20 straight points to close out the contest. Freshman Quarterback Sam Leavitt went 10/20 for 69 yards while rushing for 68 yards and two touchdowns. The story of the game was Senior back Cam Skattebo popping off for an absurd 262 yards on the ground. The defense let up a total of 292 yards of offense while forcing a fumble that was returned for a touchdown. ASU’s run defense was incredibly effective, holding MSST to 24 yards on the ground at .9 YPR. Another key takeaway from week 2 was the lack of discipline displayed by Kenny Dillingham’s team as they had 9 flags for a total of 85 yards. Playing a clean game on the road will be a must if the Devils want a chance Thursday night. The offense went an impressive 3/3 on 4th down to remain at 100% 4th down efficiency on the year. For some added context, ASU dismantled a struggling Wyoming team 48-7 in week 1.
GJ Kinne’s Texas State Bobcats are coming off a pounding of UTSA at home. Former James Madison standout quarterback Jordan McCloud has found his new home in San Marcos and picked up exactly where he left off. McCloud threw for 309 yards and 2 TDs while also getting into the endzone with his legs twice. Point blank, McCloud is the heartbeat of this team, a team that was amongst the favorites to collect a Sun Belt Championship this season. This team goes as he does. If McCloud continues to play like he did in week 2 (which he has proven he can) the sky is the limit for the Bobcats and they can hang with 90% of the country. Sophomore Chris Dawn Jr. is a player to watch as he went for 150 yards and two touchdowns against the Road Runners. The defense played well, allowing just 82 yards on the ground and forcing two turnovers on a UTSA offense that is historically very good. Texas State took care of business in week 1 beating FCS Lamar 34-27.
The thing that immediately jumps out at me is the strength of both the run defenses. In ASU’s case, this scares me as Leavitt has not proven himself as a passer. He will be required to step up and carry the offense if Skattebo is shut down. On the contrary, Jordan McCleod will have no problem having to utilize his arm and should continue to be successful. With that being said, I see points coming rapidly in this matchup. A Thursday night shootout seems likely with both teams understanding the importance of this early season test. For Arizona State, you just toppled an SEC opponent and a win on the road against a fierce G5 foe could cement expectations for a big year. This game is even bigger for Texas State. With the expanded 12-team playoff a win against a Power 5 team would jolt them into the playoff conversation. Despite coming off of short rest, both teams will be locked and loaded for this game.
The Pick: Arizona State to Win and Cover.
With all the magic that Jordan McCleod can produce it simply won’t be enough to overcome the talent gap and depth that Arizona State possesses. The only worry is a hangover from defeating an SEC school last week, but I expect Dillingham to have his guys ready to go.
Thanks for reading, and let’s go Sun Devils!
2023 Sports Year in Review
Colin Hofmeister & Patrick McHugh
December 31st, 2023
NFL-Reaching New Heights
- By all metrics, data, and numbers 2023 was a record-breaking year for the league giant that is the National Football League.
- The 2023 Super Bowl between the Eagles and the Chiefs drew an average of 115.1 million viewers according to Nielsen making it the most-watched Super Bowl of all time. As for the game itself, one of the best, high-scoring Super Bowls of the decade as the Chiefs claimed a 38-35 win thanks to a costly holding penalty on James Bradberry in the endzone on third down which gave Kansas City an automatic first down. The Chiefs were able to chew the clock before Harrison Butker delivered the game-winning field goal with just eight seconds remaining.
- Patrick Mahomes and Andy Reid won their second Super Bowl in four seasons, cementing themselves as the best quarterback/coach duo in the NFL. The spotlight has never been brighter on the Kansas City Chiefs and most notable star tight end Travis Kelce as he started data megastar Taylor Swift in September.
- The swifties have brought a storm of social media attention and all-time viewership numbers to the NFL, the chiefs have had the most watched MNF, SNF, and Christmas Day Football game of all time. Travis and his brother Jason’s podcast New Heights has quickly become the #1 sports podcast in the world admitting their Super Bowl matchup and swifty hype, and it has become impossible to watch TV without seeing a member of the Kelce family in advertisements. Safe to say the biggest name, celebrity, and talking point of the NFL in 2023 has been Travis Kelce.
- As for the other biggest stories of the NFL in 2023: injuries, MVP, and coaching.
- The NFL has seen 15 starting quarterbacks miss games with Burrow, Cousins, Rodgers, and Herbert who are among the best quarterback’s league and had their seasons cut short due to injury. The NFL is a quarterbacks league and with some of the biggest names gone, primetime games and overall excitement of regular season games have taken a hit.
- As for the MVP, the 2023 MVP was obviously Patrick Mahomes after leading the league in passing yards and touchdowns while carrying the Chiefs to the number seed in the AFC. The race for the 2024 MVP has been less straightforward with Mahomes and the Chiefs struggling, Hurts and Prescott’s inconsistent play, and the disaster which was Brock Purdy against the Ravens on MNF, the answer is not clear. Josh Allen had an awful start to the 2023 season but has since rallied his Bills into a playoff team because of his stellar play lately however, the award usually goes to the QB on the best team and for me, that’s Lamar Jackson and the ravens.
- John Harbaugh has been one of the best coaches in the NFL over the past decade and he’s got the Ravens specifically their defense looking like the favorites to win the Super Bowl. Mike McDaniel and Kevin Stefanski have done tremendous jobs this season getting their teams to the top of the AFC. While Belichick has raised questioned in Foxborough over his greatness and whether or not his time in New England needs to come to an end. As for the NFC, I think five teams stand out as contenders for the Super Bowl and it just might come down to which coach can make late-game adjustments to get the job done.
- NBA-International Stars Shine Bright
- The biggest story of the NBA in 2023 has been the emergence and domination of international players in the league.
- Nikola Jokic of Serbia and Jamal Murray of Canada led the Denver Nuggets to a dominate 2023 NBA championship run, as Jokic was without a doubt the best player in the world for 2023. Jokic was everywhere and virtually unstoppable as a scorer and passer during the 2023 playoffs combined with elite shooting from Jamal Murray, the nuggets easily captured their franchises first championship.
- Shai Gilgeous-Alexander of Canada has proven himself as a top ten player in the NBA and has the young thunder ahead of schedule and poised for a playoff run in the west.
- As for the other big names in the NBA in 2023, Joel Embiid from Cameroon captured the MVP and scoring title in 23’ and looks eager to defend both titles in 24’ with a re-energized sixers team under new coach Nick Nurse that is eager to finally make a conference final.
- Victor Wembanyama, the 7’4” French phenom, had Lebron like hype surrounding his potential as the number one overall pick in the 2023 NBA draft. He certainly has shown flashes of his greatness as a shot blocker and scorer but his spurs teams has struggled mightily and certainly is years away from being a contender.
- Damian Lillard was the blockbuster trade of the offseason, as the bucks added an elite point guard and shooter to get Giannis and Middleton over the hump however, trading away an all-NBA defender in Drue Holliday has proved costly as of the first two months of the NBA season.
- The Suns and Warriors has likely been the biggest disappointments of the NBA in 2023 both added veteran scores in Paul and Beal during the offseason but the aging veterans and lack of depth has cost both teams. While the season is certainly far from over, second round exits in back-to-back years feels like under achieving for franchise atop the NBA in salary and star power.
- The NBA is desperately searching for their next big star in the post Lebron, Curry, and KD era as Jokic couldn’t care less about being the face of the league. Lebron has dominate the NBA both on and off the court as a star for the past twenty years and continues to amaze at 39, as he led the Lakers to capture the first In Season Tournament Championship, which proved to be a massive win for the league. Lebron and a franchise like the Lakers winning and caring about the tournament adds credible and drew eyeballs and attention to the event. However, if the league wants to keep attention and rating in the future, they need more young stars. Ja Morant is one of the most electrifying players the NBA has ever seen but with a 25-game suspension for promoting a gun on social media he seems unlikely and unfit to carry the crown.
- Anthony Edwards and Luka Doncic have been amazing all season, small market teams who haven’t had playoff success are less marketable to the global audience. I think this year’s all-star game starters will feature plenty of young talent who have the capabilities to become the faces of the league.
- As for probably the most interesting team in the NBA, the Boston Celtics certainly have that claim to fame in 2023. After trading Marcus Smart to free up room to acquire Drue Holliday and Kristaps Porzingis, the Celtics on paper and by the standings have been the best team in the NBA in the 2023-2024 season. The questions remain around Jason Tatum and Jalen Brown, as the young duo has yet to put together a completely playoff run. I question whether Tatum has the ability to close out high-pressure games a be an elite superstar when it matters most. The Celtics have continued to get great play out of veterans Derrick White and Al Horford, but the pressure remains on Tatum and head coach Joe Mazzulla to return Boston to their championship ways.
- NCAA- New Contenders, Same Old Champions
- The college sports landscape continues to change more than any other sports league in America as a result of NIL and changes to transfer policies. Many had hoped that these changes would bring about a new level of parity and in some ways level the playing surface for more schools.
- As for NCAA Tournament in 2023 we saw #9 seed FAU, #5 seed Miami, and #5 seed SDSU all reach the Final Four for the first time in program history. The Madness of March was certainly around throughout the 2023 tournament, as #16 seed FDU upset #1 seed Purdue, #13 seed Furman hit a buzzer beat of #4 seed Virginia and #15 seed Princeton made it to the sweet sixteen. However, this historic and unforgettable tournament finished in a rather usual outcome as the UConn huskies dominated their way to a fifth NCAA Championship in the past 25 years. Dan Hurley and the huskies defeated San Diego State 76-59 and were led by Jordan Hawkins and Adama Sanogo.
- As for college football in 2023, a similar script as the basketball national championship, TCU made in improbable run to the national championship just like SDSU, as both teams were led by savvy senior playmakers and a fantastic coach. TCU just happened to face one of the most dominate college football teams of all time, the Georgia Bulldogs defeated TCU 65-7, marking the largest margin of victory in cfb championship history. Georgia and Kirby Smart finished the season as back-to-back champions on a sixteen-game winning streak, and looked like a program on the precipice of a dynasty.
- Georgia found out the hard way that despite the chaos and changing culture of college sports, one man remains the undisputed GOAT of college football coaching at that’s Nick Saban. Since 2020, Georgia has a 50-3 record, all three of those losses have been against Nick Saban and Alabama. Georgia desperately wants to be the top dawg of the SEC and build the dynasty of college football in Athens but a 1-4 record for Kirby Smart vs Nick Saban makes it clear who still runs college football.
- In the final year of the four-man playoff, this year’s team certainly were the most controversial and highly debates, but the committee selected the four best teams in Michigan, Washington, Texas and Alabama over an undefeated Florida State because the Seminoles were simply a worse team without their star quarterback Jordan Travis.
- Michigan, Washington and Texas all dominated their respective conferences in 2023 and will attempt to return their powerhouse programs to the top of the college football landscape, but as the title of this section states, the more college sports change the more the same winners win, and nobody has won more championships in college football than Nick Saban.
- Overall, I think college sports are more exciting than ever with high level talent spread across the board in both college football and basketball. The ability to two-time transfer and the increased CFP to twelve teams will make college sports that much more balanced and competitive in 2024 and beyond.
- MLB- Bring on the Sho(w)hei
- Major League Baseball looked slightly different this year with rule changes such as a pitch clock, pickoff limits, and bigger bases. Many were afraid of this negatively impacting the game but it positively impacted the sport.
- The pitch clock was the biggest change made, and it helped shorten average 9-inning game times from 3:03:44 in 2022 to 2:39:49 in 2023 this led to less wasted time and an increase in attendance from 2022.
- Other rule changes helped to resurrect the stolen base leading to the most stolen bases in a season since 1987.
- The resurrection of the stolen base helped lead to Ronald Acuña Jr.’s historic MVP season where he showcased his power and speed leading to him becoming the only player with a 40 HR/70 SB season.
- The other MVP was Shohei Ohtani who won his second MVP in three years. He led the league with a 1.066 OPS while pitching to a 3.14 ERA. This guided him to receive the largest contract in American sports history with a deal worth $700 million over 10 years with the Los Angeles Dodgers after the season came to a close.
- One of the most iconic moments in baseball this year happened before the MLB season started in the World Baseball Classic Final where Shohei Ohtani of Team Japan struck out his Angels teammate Mike Trout of Team USA to clinch the World Baseball Classic title for Team Japan.
- The Texas Rangers were the 2023 MLB World Series champions as they faced the Arizona Diamondbacks and won in 5 games.
- Both the Rangers and Diamondbacks showed how getting hot at the right time matters as the Rangers went into the postseason cold where they lost the division lead which they held onto a large majority of the season but as the playoffs came around they got hot and it led them to lifting the trophy. You can say a lot of the same for the Diamondbacks who were the last seed in the National League and underdogs in every series, but they showed it’s anyone’s game in the postseason as they pushed past the Brewers, Dodgers, and Phillies on their way to the World Series.
- Unfortunately for the league, this matchup of underdogs led to the least-watched World Series of all time.
- On the pitching side of things, Blake Snell had a very interesting year where he decided he would rather walk a hitter than give him a good pitch to hit which can be seen by his league-high 99 walks, but also by his league-leading 2.25 ERA. This interesting pitching mindset led him to his second career Cy Young Award.
- The 2023 MLB season was filled with many memorable moments including:
- Julio Rodríguez’s Homerun Derby performance in Seattle
- Domingo Hermán’s perfect game
- José Ramírez and Tim Anderson’s Brawl
- Trea Turner’s standing ovation leading to a hot streak
- Miguel Cabrera’s retirement
- Rays 13-game win streak to begin the season
- Liam Hendrick’s return to baseball after beating cancer
- And many more…
- Overall 2023 showed how the sport is thriving with positive rule changes, increased attendance, and record-breaking contracts. Baseball looks to be in a good spot heading into 2023.
- NHL- What Can Young Faces Bring
- The NHL is blessed with an incredible golden age of talent, with Conor McDavid at 25, Matthew Tkachuk at 25, and Auston Matthews at 26, the biggest stars of the game are still in the prime of their careers.
- Not to mention the rookie sensation Conor Bedard who was taken first overall by the Chicago Blackhawks who has already racked up 32 points and 15 goals in his first 34 games. The hype has certain surrounded both Bedard and McDavid for years as the next generation of scorers and faces of the league to take over for Crosby and Ovechkin. And while both have yet to have any sort of playoff success, the sheer attention, social media buzz, and nightly highlights keep engaging young fans and growing the sport of hockey.
- In 2023, the NHL saw the greatest regular season team of all time in the Boston Bruins lose to the #8 seed Florida Panthers as hockey continues to see 8 over 1 upsets in the first round. The Maple Leaves final got out of the first round, and the young devils defeated the hyped up Rangers in the first round as well.
- As for the biggest story of the 2023 NHL playoffs, expansion teams continue to do exceptionally well. The kraken defeated the reigning champions Aves, and the Golden Knights won the Stanley Cup in just their sixth season in the league.
- The Bruins, Panthers, Rangers, and Aves all look poised to make a deep playoff run in 2024.
- 2024 Predictions
- As for 2024, I think we are in for another incredible year in the world of sports. The NFL playoffs look like they are going to deliver some incredible wild card round matchups and truly a wide-open race to the super bowl. I truly believe there is no clear cut dominant to in the NFL, and with the Super Bowl in Vegas, you can bet the NFL is hoping for an incredible show.
- The NBA and NHL look poised for a busy trade deadline and push for the playoffs, with many young players leading their franchise ahead of schedule and looking for postseason success.
- College Football will look drastically different with conference realignment next season, and the twelve-team playoff should deliver some electric home atmospheres and high stakes games.
- As for another thing to monitor in the world of sports, Saudi Arabia’s sports washing, the controversial nation has pumped billions of dollars into their Public Investment Fund (PIF) in attempts to grow their sports leagues. The PIF has lured big names soccer talents from Europe, stars on the PGA Tour, and big-time events in UFC, Tennis and Formula 1. With billions of dollars at their disposal, the Saudi’s will continue to look to make a splash in the world of sports movie forward.
- Super Bowl- Ravens over 49ers
- CFP- Alabama over Texas
- NCAA- Houston over FAU
- NHL- Bruins over Aves
- NBA- Nuggets over Celtics
- MLB- Dodgers over Mariners
The Greatest High School Athlete Might Surprise You
Matt McMullen
September 21st, 2021
If you were a sports fan in 2002, you probably remember the rapid rise of a high school athlete out of Akron, Ohio. A young kid named Lebron James overtook national headlines with his incredible skill and thunderous dunks. He dominated high school basketball like no one before him and TV networks raced to air his games for the masses. He is, arguably, the greatest high school basketball player of all time.
But what if we compared athletes, like Lebron James, to other high school athletes in other sports. Who is the greatest high school athlete of all time?
Now, there are plenty of great high school athletes of the past. Tiger Woods won three straight US Junior Amateur Championship Titles, along with becoming the youngest ever to play in a PGA event at 16. Kareem Abdul-Jabbar, then known as Lew Alcindor, was named to the Parade All American basketball team as a sophomore, as well as winning three New York City championships and two national championships. Cheryl Miller, the older sister of Reggie Miller, became the first, male or female, to be named to four straight Parade All American teams. She scored 105 points in a high school basketball game. More recent athletes have also taken the high school world by storm. Derrick Henry rushed for a national record 12,124 yards in his high school career, averaging a ridiculous 328 yards and four touchdowns a game his senior year. Kyler Murray went 43-0 as a starter in high school and was named the Texas Mr. Football Award twice. All these athletes were incredible in their respective sports, but there is one athlete who stands far above any high school athlete before them.
Jim Ryun was born in Lawrence, Kansas, to Gerald and Wilma Ryun on April 29th, 1947. He was a middle child, with a single older brother and a younger sister. Ryun’s parents subjected him and his siblings to a strict religious upbringing, as his parents were part of the Church of Christ. Jim was a skinny kid in grade school and showed very little athletic prowess, until his sophomore year of high school when he went out for the Wichita East High School Cross Country team.
In his first year of cross country, he achieved an impressive 6th place result at the 1962 Kansas State Cross Country meet. Coach Bob Timmons, after seeing the potential of his new athlete, quickly put Ryun through 100-mile summer training weeks. For reference, modern professional marathoners typically run 100-mile training weeks. It was unheard of for anyone, especially a high school athlete, to train as much as Ryun did. Ryun began his junior season by winning the 1963 Kansas State Cross Country meet, the first of the many state titles he would earn in his career. While impressive, his first major achievement would come later in his junior season.
Ryun ran the mile in 4:40 as a sophomore, a respectable time given his age and the period. But no one could have predicted Ryun would run the mile in a time of 4:06.4 in the 1964 Kansas State Track Meet in his junior season. A week later, he ran the first of his many national records, achieving a time of 4:01.7 in a professional field in Modesto, California.
Ryun used the momentum from his national record to achieve the unthinkable just two weeks later in Compton, California. On June 5th, 1964, Ryun, at the young age of 17, became the first high school athlete to ever break 4 minutes in the mile, achieving an unbelievable time of 3:59.0. To put this into perspective, Roger Bannister, at the age of 25, was the first man to break 4 minutes in the mile in 1954. Just ten short years later, a high school junior was able to break the elusive barrier. Before this race, just 9 American athletes had run under 4 minutes for the mile. Jim Ryun had not just run one of the greatest high school performances ever, he had just run one of the most impressive American track performances ever. He was able to achieve all this before his 18th birthday. Later that summer, Jim Ryun ran another unbelievable time of 3:39.0 for the 1500m. To clarify, 1500m is just 107m shorter than the full mile and is a typical distance ran in professional running. Due to the distances being so similar, a conversion chart can be used to predict, with reasonable accuracy, how fast Ryun would have been able to run the mile with a conversion chart.
When using the chart to convert his time for the full mile, you get a ridiculous mile conversion of 3:56.5. At the time, the world record for the mile was held by the great Peter Snell, with a time of 3:54.4. It is easy to see that Jim Ryun, as a high school junior, was not only the greatest high school miler ever but one of the best in the world at the time. Also, remember the name Peter Snell, it will become important later.
For the final act of his junior track season, Jim Ryun placed 3rd in the 1964 US Olympic Trials, earning a spot in the 1964 Olympic Games in Tokyo, Japan. Jim Ryun, to this day, is the youngest American to ever represent the US Track and Field team at the Olympics, at just 17 years and 137 days old. Ryun achieved a semifinal berth in Tokyo, but due to a cold, Ryun could not qualify for the finals.
To say that Ryun’s junior track and field season was incredible would be an understatement. He established himself as one of the greatest runners in the world. Even more impressive, Ryun still had one year of high school running ahead of him.
Ryun began his senior campaign winning his second state cross country championship in a course record. Ryun then geared up to have one of the greatest track seasons of any high school athlete ever.
In the spring, Ryun raced in the 1965 Kansas State Track and Field Championships, in front of a crowd estimated to be around 10,000 people, all expecting a very quick time from the 18-year-old. Ryun did not disappoint the tremendous crowd, running an inconceivable mile time of 3:58.3. What is so incredible about this time, other than Ryun had broken the 4-minute mile barrier again, was that Ryun ran this time against the prep competition. In track, when athletes attempt to run groundbreaking times, it is much easier to run fast times in the presence of other elite athletes. Having other athletes to help push makes running fast times much easier. But, against all odds, Ryun had run alone for the entire race, having no one to help push the pace, and still managed to run an impressive time. To this day, Ryun still holds the fastest mile ever run by a high school athlete in high school competition and is just one of 4 high school athletes to run under 4 minutes in a prep school race. While this was an amazing performance by Ryun, he would produce one performance that would establish himself as not just the greatest high school track and field athlete ever, but the greatest high school athlete ever.
On June 27, 1965, Ryun toed the line in the 1965 AAU Championship, an ultra-elite mile race in San Diego. One of the athletes in the field was Peter Snell, who at the time, held was the second-fastest miler ever and was the 1964 Olympic Gold medalist in the 1500m and the 800m. Peter Snell was the undisputed greatest middle-distance runner in the world and was expected to win this mile fantastically. But, with one lap to go, Ryun famously swung wide and was able to outlast the New Zealander to win the race in a new national record of 3:55.3, just 2 seconds off the world record at the time. Ryun had just beaten the greatest middle-distance runner in the world and had set a national record that would stand for over 36 years. If there was any equivalent to this feat in other sports, it would be like a high school Lebron James beating a prime Michael Jordan in a game of basketball, or a high school Tiger Woods winning the PGA Championship. Many say that to be the best, you must beat the best. Ryun cemented his status as one of the best middle-distance runners in the world as a high school senior.
Over the course of Ryun’s high school career, he managed to achieve unfathomable feats. Ryun ran under four minutes in the mile on five separate occasions, while no other high school athlete has run under 4 minutes for the mile more than 3 times. Ryun also ran under 3:42 for the 1500m another 4 times, which is a time that when converted, would equate to under a 4-minute mile. He is still the second-fastest high school miler and holds five of the ten fastest high school mile performances to date.
What makes these performances even more impressive is that all of Ryun’s times were run on tracks that have more similarities with dirt roads than today’s track services. Since Ryun left high school, the world record in the mile has decreased from 3:53.6 in 1965, to 3:43.13 in 2021, a 10.47-second improvement. Much of this improvement can be contributed to better training techniques and more advanced track surfaces. We can only imagine what Ryun may have run if he had access to the technology athletes today have.
After high school, Ryun proceeded to have an incredible college and pro career. Ryun would eventually go on to break the world record in the mile, running a time of 3:51.3 just one year after he graduated high school in 1966. He also held 6 separate world records throughout his career, ranging from the 880-yard distance to the mile. He would make two more Olympic teams, winning a silver medal in the 1968 Mexico City Games in the 1500m. Ryun became one of the greatest American middle-distance runners of all time after high school, but his high school career is what he is most remembered for. Ryun retired from running in 1974 after an illustrious career. Today, he serves as a US House of Representative member for the 2nd District of Kansas.
Jim Ryun turned himself from a self-professed “skinny” kid into a tremendous athlete with world-class talent in the matter of 3 short years. Ryun’s abilities as a high school athlete have not, and may never, be replicated. He proved that, regardless of your age, you can dominate in your respective sport. He beat the best middle-distance runner in the world at the time as an 18-year-old. He produced performances that have not been beaten in almost 50 years. Jim Ryun should be remembered for not just being the greatest high school track and field athlete ever, but the greatest high school athlete ever.
Villanova Sports Analytics Club 